Description: A probabilistic time series model is a statistical model that describes the behavior of a time series using probabilistic methods. These models allow capturing the dynamics of data over time, considering the inherent uncertainty in predictions. Unlike deterministic models, which provide fixed results based on specific inputs, probabilistic models offer a distribution of possible outcomes, enabling the assessment of variability and risk associated with predictions. Key features of these models include the ability to handle data with trends, seasonality, and cycles, as well as the incorporation of random errors. This makes them valuable tools in various fields, such as economics, meteorology, and engineering, where decisions must be based on understanding temporal patterns and uncertainty. In summary, probabilistic time series models are fundamental for analyzing and predicting phenomena that evolve over time, providing a more comprehensive and nuanced view of temporal data.
