Description: Outcome bias is a type of cognitive bias that occurs when individuals evaluate the quality of a decision based solely on its final outcome, rather than considering the process that led to that decision. This phenomenon can lead to erroneous judgments about the effectiveness of a strategy or action, as a positive outcome may cause an overestimation of the decision’s quality, while a negative outcome may lead to an underestimation of a decision that was reasonable and well-founded at the time. This bias is particularly relevant in contexts where decisions should be evaluated based on the information and circumstances available at the time of the choice, rather than simply by the outcome achieved. In the field of artificial intelligence (AI), outcome bias can influence how algorithms and models are assessed, leading to incorrect conclusions about their effectiveness and applicability. Recognizing and mitigating this bias is crucial for more objective and informed decision-making, especially in areas where the consequences can be significant, such as technology, business, and social sciences.
