Description: Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that allows organizations to anticipate and prepare for different possible futures. This approach is based on creating detailed narratives that describe how various situations might unfold in the future, considering economic, social, technological, and environmental factors. Through scenario planning, companies can identify risks and opportunities, enabling them to develop more flexible and adaptive strategies. This method does not aim to predict the future accurately but to explore a variety of possibilities that could influence the organization’s direction. Key characteristics of scenario planning include identifying key variables, creating coherent narratives, and assessing the implications of each scenario. Its relevance lies in organizations’ ability to navigate uncertain and complex environments, facilitating informed decision-making and preparation for unexpected changes.
History: Scenario planning originated in the 1960s, primarily in military and business contexts. One of the pioneers in this field was the consulting firm Royal Dutch Shell, which used this approach to anticipate changes in the oil market. Over the years, the methodology has evolved and been adopted across various industries, becoming a valuable tool for strategic planning.
Uses: Scenario planning is used in various fields, including business management, urban planning, public policy, and environmental sustainability. It allows organizations to assess the impact of different variables and trends on their operations and long-term strategies.
Examples: An example of scenario planning is Shell’s use in the 1970s to prepare for the oil crisis. Another case is the work done by various institutes that use this methodology to address environmental and social challenges in the future.
