Description: The sensitivity analysis model is an analytical tool that assesses how variations in the values of one or more independent variables affect a specific dependent variable, under a given set of assumptions. This model is fundamental in decision-making, as it provides a clear understanding of the relationship between different variables and helps identify which ones are most influential on a particular outcome. Through simulations and statistical analyses, the effects of changes in variables can be observed, allowing analysts and decision-makers to anticipate possible scenarios and adjust strategies accordingly. This approach is especially valuable in fields such as economics, engineering, biology, and project management, where decisions must be based on an understanding of uncertainty and variability. In summary, the sensitivity analysis model is an essential tool for assessing risks and optimizing outcomes across various disciplines.
History: Sensitivity analysis has its roots in decision theory and statistics, with significant developments occurring in the 1960s. As computers became more accessible, complex mathematical models began to require this type of analysis to assess the robustness of results. In the 1970s, the use of sensitivity analysis techniques was formalized in operations research and economics, allowing researchers and professionals to better evaluate the impact of uncertainty on their models.
Uses: Sensitivity analysis is used across various disciplines, including economics to assess the impact of changes in economic variables, in engineering to optimize designs, and in biology to understand variability in biological models. It is also common in project management, where it helps identify risks and evaluate the feasibility of different scenarios.
Examples: A practical example of sensitivity analysis can be found in investment project evaluation, where different interest rates are analyzed for their effect on return on investment. Another case is in climate modeling, where variations in greenhouse gas emissions are assessed for their impact on global temperature projections.
